The Mountain West conference basketball season heads to the stretch run this weekend as every team has played each other once. What we know is at the top, this looks like a 3 bid conference. BYU is nearing the top 10, New Mexico is in the top 15 for the 2nd time and UNLV has flirted with the top 25. All have strong RPI rankings above 35 and look to be in good shape for the post season. San Diego State is on the fringe at (16-6, 5-3) plus a 55 RPI, but it is going to take a good stretch run to get them back into the mix.

On the other side of things Air Force is cemented at the bottom of the standings at (1-7) although they did pick up their first conference win after losing all 17 games against conference opponents. They look to be a sure lock for the 8th seed versus 9th seed play-in game to make it into the Mountain West tournament, but the 8th seed is a little murky.

Right now the Frogs are tied with Wyoming at (2-6) and Utah sits just ahead at (3-5). A very impressive Colorado State squad has jumped out to a (4-4) record and they may have positioned themselves high enough to avoid the basement. So the 8th seed comes down to 3 teams. Through the first round, each team is (1-1) against one another with the home team getting the victory. Without any changes, it would leave Wyoming and TCU battling it out for that last spot by virtue of Utah having a game up on the other two.

One of the things we discussed on a recent podcast was how do we measure success for Jim Christian in year 2. Leonard at one point quipped that avoiding the play-in game would be a minimum requirement. For that to happen, the Frogs are going to have to find a way to win on the road, starting this weekend at Air Force. This is a game the Frogs need really badly. As I said, until a week ago, the Falcons were riding a 22 game losing streak in conference play. This is not a good team. But then again, I am still trying to figure out where we stand.

When we played Air Force last time, it was a tale of two halves much like it has been all year. The Frogs looked great in the 1st half before going rogue and moving away from what was so successful. The Frogs were up by 13 on Air Force to end the 1st half, but managed just 9 points in the first 15 minutes of the second half allowing Air Force to take the lead. Truth is, when Air Force went to a zone, the Frogs did not know what to do. Has anything changed heading into Saturday? Las Vegas does not know either as the line is even right now.

To me the Frogs have improved because they have more guys with game experience. The freshmen have logged more minutes and have logged them in valuable situations. But it does not matter if the bench has gotten better if the starters have not improved. And that is where this team finds itself.

At the start of the conference season, Christian made the players take a new photo and talked about starting anew. Frankly, the Frogs have played like more of a team in conference than they did outside of it, but this team still struggles with consistency and playing on the road. Both of those things are typical symptoms of the younger squad that they are. The question remains, what will these kids do when they are all grown up?

I wish I could answer this question. There is always a learning curve, but you never know if it going to be steep or fairly flat. The kids are getting the repetitions, but it has not happened yet. For young guys like Xavier Roberson and Nikola Cerina, their defense has been good and their offense weak. For a guy like Ronnie Moss, it has been all offense and very little defense. And then there is a guy like Garlon Green, who I fully expected to take a while to develop, but he still looks lost despite the added minutes. As a fan, you wait for those breakthrough moments when the lights go on and it just has not happened. And that is why we are stuck trying to avoid the play-in game.

A loss tomorrow would be the tipping point for this squad. A loss to Air Force would be a huge setback to a team that desperately needs some hope. As Leonard said, avoiding the play-in game was the minimum aspiration for the 2009-10 season and it did not seem like we were asking for much. But if we cannot beat the Falcons, it is highly unlikely that this team will put up much of a fight down the stretch. The one thing these guys have never done to Coach Christian is give up, but who can blame them if they do? And if they do, will Christian ever be able to win them back?

So that is my best effort at making a largely meaningless game to the vast majority of this country into an important game. So meaningless that this is the only conference game TCU will play that is not televised. A win maintains the status quo for the rebuilding project, but a loss could be potentially devastating. My money is on the Frogs, but the only thing we will know for sure is the weather will be a whole lot nicer inside Clune Arena than it was when the football team traveled to Falcon Stadium.