Comment by AggieFrog (Keller, TX) Friday, March 05, 2010 11:02 pm
TCU should win all 3 games at Minute Maid this weekend, but I'm not sure I'd call for 50 wins just yet. If I were to guess at this point, I think 42 would be just about right before postseason play.
Slumps are inevitable (which is why I'm not sure 50 is reasonable), but TCU will have a great year on the diamond.
Is 50 Wins Realistic?
by David Peterson Friday, March 05, 2010
The Frogs are off to a (6-1) start in baseball sitting firmly in the top 10 in most polls. The season looks extremely promising. Playing in the Mountain West conference sets up a season where the out of conference schedule looms large when in comes to seeding in the NCAA tournament. The Frogs must get out of the box strong as their conference schedule rarely brings much of a bump in the eyes of the NCAA selection committee. That is why this weekend is so important.
Looking ahead, the Frogs really do not play that tough of a schedule this season. New Mexico is improved, but they pose less of a threat than San Diego State did a year ago because Stephen Strasburg was an automatic win. Aside from them, we have our traditional home and away games with some of the Big XII teams. Oklahoma and Baylor offer trade games, a weekend series with Texas Tech at home, and one home game later in the season against Texas A&M represent most of the meat on this schedule. There are tough mid-majors like Texas State, Oral Roberts, and Dallas Baptist, but in my opinion, all these teams are the same or worse than they were a year ago.
Depending on the outcome of this weekend, this team may be able to stay in single digits in the loss column. Yes, I said it, less than 10 losses and possibly 50 wins. Darn, I just put the jinx on them. With the youth on this team it seems unlikely, but it is not impossible. It would be a good goal to have because 50 wins would absolutely earn us a national seed and mean we would host a Super Regional.
If we were to get a Super Regional it means we would likely have Rice or Texas coming to us, which brings us back to this weekend. This tournament is great because it brings so much talent to one place. With Texas, Rice and TCU on the same field with Texas Tech, Houston and Missouri, a lot of talent evaluators and prognosticators will be at Minute Maid. So it is important to make an impression that will leave a lasting mark this weekend.
For the Frogs, it is easier said than done. Friday the Red Raiders will throw Chad Bettis who has been their best pitcher for 2 years now. Saturday the Frogs face a tall hard throwing right hander named Nick Tepesch who can run up strikeouts and is a high pro prospect. Sunday the Frogs face a good Rice squad and a former teammate in Boogie Anagnostou. All 3 teams lined up good pitchers to face the Frogs so they have their work cut out for them.
The other hard part will be playing in Houston. All 3 of our weekend starters will be making homecomings in the coming days, as are a good chunk of the lineup. Every coach loves going on the road because it allows them to remove the distractions of being on campus. But in Houston, the Frogs will have family and friends there to watch, which hopefully will not be a distraction. It is one of those situations where I expect these players to turn career performances or struggle mightily. But then again, much like our football team this season, the Frog baseball squad appears to be the most professional squad of the Coach Schlossnagle era. They go out and perform every night and never seem fazed by any challenge.
So will they win? Who knows? The easy way out is to say we win 2 out of 3. I personally am disappointed with the schedule makers as they gave the Frogs the worst time slots of the tournament. By having the early game on Friday and the late game on Sunday, they made it extremely difficult to travel as a fan. Still, it is just fun to be able to play this game.
-On another note, Jason Coats is on a tear. Coaches always say most of the battle is confidence. I wonder how much confidence carried over from that walk off hit to win the Fort Worth Regional.
-I know people want to talk about Purke and I am happy to oblige, but do not read too much into his early struggles. I think you will find that his season would remind you of a freshman last year by the name of Kyle Winkler. We all know how he worked out. Give him time to acclimate and he will be just fine.
-The guy on the pitching staff that is not getting enough love is Kaleb Merck with 3 appearances, 5 innings and just 2 hits allowed. He has thrown strikes and flat out dominated. He always had the tools, but he just needed to utilize the strike zone. This year he looks fantastic.
-My last note is for Aaron Schultz. He continues to be a man without a position, but he looks pretty good at 3rd base so for. Jantzen Witte may come back and reclaim 3rd base, but Schlossnagle needs to find a way to get him in the lineup. 3 or 4 years ago this team was filled with guys who did not project as future Major Leaguers but they were gritty and successful college players. Schultz is that throwback. He is a player that will leave it all out on the field night in, night out and I think he needs to be on the field in some capacity.