The question is not do we deserve to be one, it's whether or not this historically RPI obsessed committee will give us the nod. I think the answer is no. There is really only one national seed up for grabs this morning. Arizona State, Florida, Texas, Virginia, Coastal Carolina, and Louisville are pretty much certainties. From there, just about everyone expects either UCLA or CSF to get a slot, most likely UCLA. That leaves one spot for TCU, Georgia Tech, South Carolina, Arkansas, Miami, and Fullerton to fight over. While I can make a case for TCU to get the spot over each of those schools, I don't think it will ultimately go our way. I think Georgia Tech is going to get the 8th seed. Georgia Tech was 2nd in the ACC behind Virginia. If I was on the committee, I would probably be choosing between TCU, South Carolina, and Fullerton for the 8th seed, and I would give TCU the nod. We'll see what happens.
2. What team will TCU be paired with for the Super Regional?
I think a lot of TCU fans out there are hoping that TCU doesn't get matched up with Texas in a super regional this year. While I agree that I would rather not run into them until Omaha, I think some of the alternatives are worse. If you don't want to face UT, do you really want to be sent to Arizona to face the likely top overall seed Arizona State? At least we would have some fan support in Austin. OU can't be matched with Texas due to conference affiliation, so I think it's likely they are sent west to pair with Arizona St. That leaves TCU and Arkansas as logical teams, geographically speaking, to send to Austin. There is a chance that Arkansas would be paired with Texas. That would result in TCU being sent east, perhaps to be paired with Virginia or Georgia Tech (I'm expecting Coastal Carolina and South Carolina to be paired).
Utlimately, I think TCU fans should prepare themselves to see us paired with UT, and you shouldn't be intimidated by that. We took them to the third game last year and we are better this year. I feel pretty good about our chances, and I like that our guys would have a solid contingent of fan support in Austin, which they might not get anywhere else. We are, however, getting ahead of ourselves on all of this super regional talk. The most important thing today will be the teams that are sent to Fort Worth for our regional.
3. Who will TCU face in the Fort Worth regional?
That's the million dollar question. I think you can absolutely count on 1 of the 4 teams: Texas A&M, Baylor, LSU, Rice. What we don't want to see is 2 of those teams. If we do get 2 of those teams, I think we would want it to be Rice as a 2 seed and Baylor as a 3. A&M and LSU both coming to Fort Worth would be brutal, but it sure would be fun to watch. I don't think the committee would do that to us. More likely, I think Texas A&M comes to Fort Worth as the 2 seed, and a Pac-10 team (like California, Arizona, or Stanford) is sent here as the 3. There are going to be at least 7 Pac-10 teams in the field. 2 will be hosting. 1 will go to Fullerton. The other 4+ are headed east. I would be pretty happy with that setup. My prediction is TCU, A&M, Stanford, and then some random 4 seed from the north, say Wisconsin-Milwalkee.
4. Where's your projection of the entire field?
I got about 50 teams into my projection and figured out that I have no clue how the committee will decide on those last 15 or so teams. That job is more difficult than I thought. I do think the Super Regional pairings will be as follows:
#1 Arizona State - Oklahoma #2 Virginia - Vandy (#1 seed in UConn's region) #3 Texas - TCU #4 Florida - Miami #5 Coastal Carolina - South Carolina #6 Louisville - Arkansas #7 UCLA - Cal St Fullerton #8 Georgia Tech - Auburn
I have Rice and California as the 2/3 seeds in Austin. Mississippi and College of Charleston as the 2/3 in Norman. LSU is sent to Louisville as the 2. Baylor goes to Arkansas as the 3. Alabama is the 2 in Georgia Tech's regional. Florida St is the 2 in Auburn. We'll find all of this out in about half an hour. Go Frogs!