I wanted to follow up on the departure of Todd Whitting because of the recruiting implications that his leaving could have.
Recently, I had a chance to talk to the father of one of the TCU players who is from Houston. The discussion came up that Whitting would be a candidate for the Cougars job and I asked him what he thought about it. He started by saying that the University of Houston is a difficult job because the school is not as well respected in the Houston community as it could be. In addition, he talked about their questionable location and he concluded that it is a difficult place to sell.
After taking a moment, I asked him if Whitting would be successful if he were offered the job. His response was an emphatic yes. He believed that Whitting was largely responsible for our pipeline of Houston players and he felt that if Whitting took the Houston job, all those players would go to Houston instead of TCU because Whitting has that much pull in the high school and travel team networks.
This seems extreme, but there is certainly concern that this could happen. Whitting has certainly put together a network of high school Houston players that include names like Matt Carpenter, Taylor Cragin, Sam Demel, Taylor Featherston, Chad Huffman, Tyler Lockwood, Steven Maxwell, Matt Purke, Aaron Schultz, Matt Vern, Andrew Walker and Kyle Winkler. All told, since 2004, the Frogs have added 22 players from high schools in the Houston area and 4 others, (Austin Adams, Andrew Cashner, Shawn Ferguson and Stuart Musslewhite) that went elsewhere and transferred to TCU.
The 26 players from the Houston area is 2nd most from any area trailing only the Metroplex, which has 39 players. But, if you compare how many players chose TCU out of high school, Houston actually leads the Metroplex since 2004 by a count of 22 to 21. This comparison would suggest that Houston is vital to our recruiting and losing Whitting could potentially be a very big deal.
This is a great question for our friends at PurpleMenace. Do kids have a desire to go away to school or do they want to play at home? If you look at our football, basketball and baseball squads, each one of these programs seem to go after the Houston area more than any other area. Certainly there are more people in the Greater Houston area than in Fort Worth, but for this exercise we combined Fort Worth, Arlington, Dallas and all of the surrounding areas into the Metroplex, which would seem to negate the larger population argument for the most part. So there are maybe 3 arguments you can make as to why TCU focuses on Houston:
1- Kids want to go away to college, but like being close enough that their parents can watch them play 2- There is more athletic talent in Houston than the Metroplex 3- TCU coaches prefer Houston
If you believe that kids want to go away for college, the TCU baseball program would seem to suggest that. As said earlier, the Frogs have had 39 players on their roster since 2004 from the Metroplex, but 18 of those players went away and then transferred back home. What if the Frogs had gotten the likes of Clint Arnold, Jake Arrieta, Lance Broadway, Keith Conlon, Matt Curry, Steve Ellington, Chris Ellington, Brad Furnish, Seth Garrison, Bryan Holaday, Bryan Kervin and Joe Weik to come to TCU as freshman instead of letting them get away? In defense of TCU, one of their first recruiting classes included local products German Duran and Shelby Ford, but both ended up transferring elsewhere before their careers were done.
From 2005 to 2007, the only high schoolers from the Metroplex to play for the Frogs included Zach Ashwood, John Dao, Matt McGuirk, Brett Medlin, Will Skelton, Corey Steglich, Derek VerHagen and Hunt Woodruff. If not for injuries, Matt McGuirk could have been a star, but for the most part this list is filled with walk-ons and utility players. The Frogs did a terrible job of getting high schoolers in the area to play for TCU.
It does seem that the tide is turning a little as the Frogs have done well in the Metroplex recently with incoming high schoolers. Trent Appleby, Jason Coats, Walker Kelly, Kaleb Merck, Jimmie Pharr, Jantzen Witte and Davy Wright all seems to suggest that TCU is beginning to build a footprint in the Metroplex.
The other 2 arguments are not totally quantifiable or not by me at least. Does Houston have more athletic talent than the Metroplex? I might make an argument that in baseball it does, but I am not necessarily certain that it is better all around. Also, looking at the names listed above, the Houston players are impressive, but so is the Metroplex list. I will let you come to your own conclusion on this front.
Finally, do TCU coaches prefer Houston to the Metroplex? If they do, I think it has to do with them playing the odds from our argument that kids want to go away for school.
So what, if anything, did we learn from this? Todd Whitting clearly has influence on the Houston area, but if we believe that kids want to go away for school, it is going to be difficult for him to keep kids from Houston from going away to places such as TCU. Certainly, the Houston area has been vital for TCU and should remain key in the future of the Horned Frogs plans. But if Whitting can keep kids in Houston, TCU should be able to keep kids at home in the Metroplex. While Houston, Rice and Texas A&M fight over local kids in the Houston area, TCU recruits against UTA and Dallas Baptist. We should certainly have an advantage.
The big thing to watch is who will TCU hire to take the place of Whitting. The decision will certainly impact the direction our program takes as Whitting leaves big shoes to fill. What I do know is the program has more prestige and more resources than when Whitting started, so the Frogs should be able to get a pretty good replacement.